Herd Imminuty

so, some quick back-of-a-fag-packet numbers - it looks like Herd immunity has kicked in, in the UK. 48 million vaccinated plus 5 million caught and recovered = 53 million, population 68 million = 77% immune.

Spain is at 29.3 m single or double dosed, plus 3.7m recovered, is 33 m out of 48 million immune which is 68%.

So if the Uk is the benchmark, it looks like Spain is about 8 million vaccinations/recovered from Herd Immunity. At the average vaccination rate here, thats about 50 days away, ie somewhere at the mid/end of September, assuming nothing changes.

Yea hopefully though strangely this reports Spain as being in the lead now for vaccinations

yes, i arrived at a rough average of 164,000 vaccinations a day. and bearing mind the UK is 50% bigger population wise. I dont think my numbers are too far out

Very much depends on what new variants are on the horizon.
Looking forward to booster jabs this autumn.
Global scene still way back.

RJC wrote:Very much depends on what new variants are on the horizon.
Looking forward to booster jabs this autumn.

Global scene still way back.

And its the vast hordes of the non-immune third world in which the variants will mutate and emerge, as we saw with India. Fortunately, as viruses mutate they try to optimise their transmission, because its not in the viruses interest to kill you, because then you cant spread it, so as they mutate they tend to become more infectious but weaker symptoms. Covid will eventually turn into just another flu.

More experts... I feel much safer now.

MichaelC wrote:More experts... I feel much safer now.

Become well-read, then you become better informed. And theres nothing wrong with that. Have I offended you by being well-informed, in which case I apologise for my enterprise? My comments were based on the opinion of Professor Martin Michaelis of the University of Kent’s School of Biosciences, from an article in 'Nature'

MichaelC wrote:More experts... I feel much safer now.

There is also a long detailed article here in New Scientist on the subject of viral escape mutations, but this may be behind paywall (I cant tell, im permanently logged in as a subscriber) https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg ... -variants/

According to the Costa Blanca News it looks like Puig agrees with you:

""Group immunity for October", says Puig

Valencia president Ximo Puig reported that the region will reach ‘group immunity’ from Covid-19 before the public bank holiday for Valencia day, which is celebrated on October 9.
This will mark the ‘overcoming’ of the pandemic and the start of the ‘economic, social and emotional recovery’ in society, he stated."